Busines Conditions Index falls below growth-neutral

OMAHA, Neb. — The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a key economic indicator for a nine-state region, fell below the 50.0 growth-neutral threshold for the fifth time this year, signaling ongoing economic challenges. The index, which covers states from Minnesota to Arkansas, dropped to 48.1 in September, down from 48.7 in August. According to Ernie Goss, director of Creighton’s Economic Forecasting Group, supply managers are increasingly concerned about inflation, predicting a 6.2% rise in input prices over the next year.

In Nebraska, the Business Conditions Index saw a decline to 51.5 in September, down from 56.4 in August, despite a year-to-date manufacturing job growth of 2,400 jobs (+3.4%). Kansas also saw a modest improvement in its index, rising to 48.8 from 46.5, but the state has lost 600 manufacturing jobs in 2024.

Employment conditions across the region remain challenging, with the employment index dropping to 44.3, marking nine consecutive months below growth neutral. Almost 18% of supply managers reported a shortage of workers, despite overall declines in regional manufacturing jobs by 4,900 (-0.3%).

Inflationary pressures returned in September as the price gauge rose to 56.6, marking the first increase after six months of declines. Confidence among supply managers remains low, with 62% expecting a recession or worsening conditions in the next six months.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted this monthly survey since 1994, producing insights on the region’s economic outlook across nine states, including Nebraska and Kansas.