'Exceptional drought' area expanding

LINCOLN -- The drought is deepening and intensifying across Nebraska's Panhandle and southeastern and south central parts of the state, University of Nebraska climatologists say.

Only isolated thunderstorms offer any possible relief and unless a significant storm front develops, many eastern Nebraska farmers may not get a dryland crop for the first time in years, said Al Dutcher, NU's state climatologist.

"Each day we go without rain, yields continue to drop," Dutcher said.

"We are at critical growth periods for corn and soybeans. I've seen ears of corn only 5 to 8 inches long and beans with three or four pods and the rest of the pods shriveled up."

With only chances of localized precipitation in the next couple of weeks, the U.S. Drought Monitor map updated Thursday (Aug. 1) shows a large portion of western and southwest Nebraska in an exceptional drought and most of the state in an extreme drought, said Mark Svoboda, climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center in NU's Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources. There is less than a 2 percent chance of an exceptional (D4) drought in 100 years. It is the worst and most uncommon category, Svoboda said.

A sliver of northeast Nebraska has been moved down to a moderate drought (D1) and far eastern Nebraska is in severe (D2) drought conditions.

The center produces the weekly Drought Monitor map in cooperation with federal agencies. The U.S. Drought Monitor updated weekly is available at http://drought.unl.edu/dm/. Many Nebraska cities are recording some of their driest years, Dutcher said.

"Precipitation has gone from normal in eastern Nebraska at end of the Memorial Day weekend to near record dryness," Dutcher said. "Now we've slipped to somewhere around the 20th driest year to date in Lincoln.

Scottsbluff is reporting its driest year ever and many other sites in the western half of the state are falling into top 10 categories."

Temperatures haven't been as bad across the eastern part of the state yet, but parts of southwestern Nebraska are a different story, Dutcher said.

"McCook has had 27 100 degree plus days," Dutcher said. "That now ties them with 1934 and they could easily surpass the 1936 record of 37 days. Based on the number of days greater than 100 degrees in the southwestern corner of the state, temperature conditions are reflective of the '30s." Although these conditions may be similar to those of the 1930s, it's hard to compare one drought to another. There are many variables, Svoboda said.

"We shouldn't understate the impacts of this drought, but agricultural practices are different, conservation practices are different and we haven't been dry 7 out of 10 years or as hot as it was in the '30s," Svoboda said.

The last drought that impacted corn and soybean yields was in '88 and '89. Before that, it was the drought in the mid-'70s.

"If history is our guide, in the last 30 years we've been fortunate to avoid droughts lasting three or more years," Svoboda said. "Climate works in cycles. The drought could go either way, but even if the drought would continue it doesn't mean that everything will turn into a dust ball."

This winter will be critical, the climatologists agreed.

"With this season in the books, we're really going to want some recharge next winter and next spring when planting occurs," Svoboda said.

"The critical issue to break this drought is an above to average snow pack" in the Rocky Mountains, Dutcher said. "This tends to keep the atmosphere colder than normal and increases instability across the Central Great Plains. We didn't see that this year and didn't have the severe weather. The rains just shut off.

"With Lake McConaughy at or near historical lows, if something doesn't break in the mountains next year there could be some considerable restrictions on irrigation."

Three-month projections show the Panhandle with a greater likelihood of above normal temperatures. The southern Panhandle and extreme southwestern Nebraska show a greater likelihood of above normal precipitation. The rest of the state appears to have equal chances of above, below or near-normal temperatures and precipitation, Svoboda said.

El Nino also could have an impact. Nebraska is on the transition line of El Nino the state could be influenced by drier Canadian air or wetter southern air, Svoboda said.