Genral Election Prediction

Well after nearly two years we have made to Election Day and I am ready to make my prediction for how the race will turn out. I will also offer up best case scenarios for each candidate.

Just as a reminder I picked the 2012 race with 100% accuracy, though I was mocked and derided for, but I digress. I do not expect lightening to hit twice but here's to hoping:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

http://www.270towin.com/maps/QJ48K

I am predicting that Clinton will win the White House with 347 delegates to Trump's 191.

I gave Clinton Nevada, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

I was shakiest on Iowa and North Carolina but in the last few days the polls were showing a trend back to Clinton. The main reason I gave Clinton Ohio is that Ohio has been won by the person winning the presidential election since 1964, the last time they did not was the 1960 election that John Kennedy won. I think it will be close but ultimately Clinton will come out ahead.

I do not see Florida being as close as the polls have shown primarily due to the Latino vote.

I was close to predicting the upset for Clinton in Arizona simply based on the Latino vote so I would not be surprised if Clinton does win the state but also not surprised if Trump pulls out a close victory. Same with Texas. Trump will win but it will be a lot closer than people think.

Utah is the extreme outlier because there are actually several different outcomes that could occur: Trump wins with Clinton in second (as expected), Trump wins but McMullin finishes second, Clinton wins with Trump in second, or Clinton wins with McMullin in second. Also there is the extreme possibility that McMullin pulls of the upset and wins the state.

Whoever wins in Utah this could set up the internal fight in the Republican Party (if Trump loses the election overall) between the direction Trump wants to take the party and staying the course with McMullin.

The above prediction may seem like the best case scenario for Clinton but it actually is not, that is below:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

http://www.270towin.com/maps/RJ8PX

In this scenario Clinton would win the electoral college 458-80.

This scenario is highly unlikely but not outside the realm of possibility as all the red states turned blue are states that Clinton has lead in previous polls. The most likely out of these states currently is Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri.

Of course Trump does have a path to victory though it is much tougher than people want to admit:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

http://www.270towin.com/maps/EXk3P

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but this is about the only path to victory that Trump has to victory. He has to win every single toss-up state (including those he has been lagging in for most the campaign) and pick up that second congressional district in Maine.

I am fairly confident of Clinton winning tomorrow but that is why we have elections and anything can happen.

A couple of things worth watching tomorrow is just how the number of Latinos voting this year compared to 2012 and even 2008. If it is significantly higher Clinton could win in an electoral and popular landslide.

In the primaries Trump did extremely well in the early voting but lagged in the actual day of voting. One case in point was Louisiana. He easily won early voting over the other candidates but struggled to stay in second in day of voting and because of this Cruz was almost able to beat Trump there.

It will be interesting to see if this holds true for the national election or if the trend could potentially be reversed where Clinton gets a huge surge out of early voting but Trump wins day of voting.