Week 17 General Election Projection

Another week with really no change. It does appear at this time that Trump's surge has stalled as only one delegate moved and that was Main's District 2 that went from lean to likely.

With the first debate taking place on Monday depending on who is seen as the window (by the voters not the media) we should not really see any kind of movement (if any) until Friday, possibly not until the following Monday.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/pDb0L

Toss-Up States

Georgia

A new week brings another five polls(bringing the total up to 34) Trump's lead has extended to 4.7; 44.02-39.32. I thought that Georgia would go to a likely for Trump this week and it almost did. One poll that only gave him a three point lead kept him out of the likely category

Missouri

Amazingly there was only one poll in the state from this past week, for a total of 24. It did help cushion Trump's lead at 4.17; 42.21-38.4. Though the only poll gave Clinton a slight lead (one point) so it was within the margin of error. With past polls giving Trump solid leads this last poll may be an outlier.

Florida

Five new polls in the state bringing the total up to 61. Florida may very well hit 100 polls in this election cycle. The polls have continued to bring good news to Trump and he has cut further into Clinton's lead. Her lead stands at 1.82 43.57-41.75. Though the state still trends towards Trump this week was actually a stronger week for Clinton. She lead in three of the five polls (1 point, 5, and 5) but Trump lead the last two (by 13 and 1). The poll giving him the 13 point advantage kept the momentum on his side for the time being.

Arizona

Two new polls in the state have lead to Clinton closing the gap in the state. In 29 polls Trump's lead shrank to 1.17; 40.48-39.41 Unfortunately for Trump it looks like Arizona is going to be a guessing game up to election day. He will gain momentum and she will quickly squash it.

Ohio

Only two new polls this week with Trump leading by five in one and Clinton leading by one in the last. Clinton's lead has sunk to 0.92 in 46 polls 42.1-41.81. The polls are still very minimally in Trump's favor. Because of Clinton's larger leads earlier it's taking time for Trump to cut into his lead. As it has been in every election we will not have a clear cut favorite the day of the election.

Nevada

Five new polls, again, this week. Trump has increased his lead in the state to 0.75 in 28 polls 40.29-39.54.Trump lead in four of the five polls released this week and the one he did not was tied. Clearly in Trump's corner right now.

Iowa

Two more polls two more Trump leads. He continues to cut into Clinton's lead. She leads by 0.45 in 33 polls 39.39-38.94. This was a bit of a strange week of polls as one had Trump up by one and the other by 7.

North Carolina

Six new polls this week helped Trump cut even further into Clinton's miniscule lead. Her lead is now 0.29 in 48 polls 42.1-41.81. Trump lead in four of the polls that were released this week. Clinton only lead one and that lead was 4.

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton lead down to 52.41-26.94(lead was 25.6 down to 25.47)
New York - Clinton lead down to 50.37-31.53 (lead was 19.11 down to 18.84)
Massachusetts - Clinton lead up to 46-17.9(lead was 22.41 up to 28.1)
Vermont - Clinton lead up to 46.22-17.78 (lead was 28 up to 28.44)
DC - Clinton lead down to 45.33-25.83 (lead down to 19.5 down from 21.4)
Maine D-1 - Clinton lead down to 47.5-30.5(lead was 17.25 down to 17)

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton lead down to 39.45-28.66 (lead was 10.8 down to 10.79)
New Jersey - Clinton lead down to 44.57-34.1(lead was 11 down to 10.57)
Connecticut - Clinton lead down to 44.67-33.2 (lead was 11.78 down to 11.57)
New Hampshire - Clinton lead up to 43.67-37.07(lead was 6.54 up to 6.6)
Pennsylvania - Clinton lead down to 43.93-38.91(lead was 5.25 down to 5.02)
Rhode Island - Clinton lead up to 40.88-28 (lead was 12.57 up to 12.88)

LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump lead up to 41.83-35.67(lead was at 3 up to 6.16).

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump lead up to 50.8-31.33 (lead was 19 up to 19.47)
Alabama - Trump lead up to 55.21-29.14 (lead was 25.23 up to 26.07)
West Virginia - Trump lead down to 47.5-32.56 (lead was 17.78 down to 13.37)
Mississippi - Trump lead up to 52.64-30.86 (lead was 20.54 up to 21.78)
Tennessee - Trump lead up to 46.07-25.43 (lead was 16.23 up to 16.64)

LIKELY

Arkansas - Trump lead down to 45.4-35.2(lead was 10.23 down to 10)
Kentucky - Trump lead up to 43.6-34.13(lead was 9.36 up to 9.47)
Virginia - Clinton lead down to 43.46-36.09 (lead was 7.78 down to 7.37)
South Carolina - Trump lead up to 44.6-37.5 (lead was 7.05 up to 7.1)

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton lead down to 45.83-31.48 (lead was 15.05 down to 14.35)

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump lead down to 44.26-34.26 (lead was 10.55 down to 10)
Michigan - Clinton lead down to 41.45-35.77 (lead was 5.84 down to 5.68)
Wisconsin - Clinton lead down to 43.57-35.5 (lead was 8.18 down to 8.07)
Minnesota - Clinton lead down to 43.33 (lead was 9.85 down to 8.06)

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump lead down to 47.87-29.4 (lead was 18.92 down to 18.47)
North Dakota - Trump lead down to 44.75-23.63 (lead was 22.67 down to 21.12)

LIKELY

Texas - Trump lead up to 42.74-3.16 (lead was 9.39 up to 9.58)
Nebraska - Trump lead up to 43-34.42 (lead was 11.45 up to 11.58)
South Dakota - Trump lead down to 35.86-29.14 (lead was 8 up to 6.72)

LEAN

Kansas - Trump lead down to 40.95-37.11(lead was 4.67 down do 3.84)

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Wyoming - Trump lead at 48.25-22.25(lead remains at 26)
Idaho - Trump lead up to 45.44-25.94 (lead was 19.13 up to 19.5)

LIKELY

Montana - Trump lead down to 40.36-32.64 (lead was 8.9 down to 7.72)
Colorado - Clinton lead up to 40.81-35.31 (lead was 5.17 up to 5.5)
New Mexico - Clinton lead down to 37.67-32.67(lead was 5.45 down to 5)
Utah - Trump lead down to 35.66-28.41 (lead was 7.76 down to 7.25)

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton lead down to 52.12-29.91 (lead was 22.58 down to 22.21)
Hawaii - Clinton lead down to 45.43-25(lead was 22.57 down to 20.43)

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton lead up to 42.83-35.72 (lead was 10 up to 10.11)
Washington - Clinton lead down to 43.81-30.44 (lead was 13.78 down to 13.37)
Alaska - Trump lead up to 38.4-28.9 (lead was 8.55 up to 9.5)

MAP WITH JOHNSON POLLS ONLY

http://www.270towin.com/maps/mxAy3

IF ELECTION HELD TODAY

Due to the first debate occurring last night there will not be a map for this section this week.