And Now for Something Completely Different

Week 16 General Election Projection

Posted Sunday, September 18, 2016, at 3:38 PM

Another week has passed us by and Donald Trump continues to gain ground on Clinton. Just as I stated after Clinton took a huge lead after the conventions it is way too early to be reading to much into the polls. The latter part of the month was good to Trump, despite his many gaffes, because the Clinton team felt it better just to stay out of his way instead of pressing on him. For about a week and a half it worked, but the Clinton campaign took too much of a risk and did not really answer any of his lies about her. This, more than anything, has caused his rebound in the polls.

Now that we are into September the first debate is upon us.

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Not much has changed from last week to this week, with the only major change being Nevada going from Lean Clinton to Lean Trump

South Carolina is solidly a Likely state for Trump at this time so South Carolina is out of the toss-ups.

The polls, though still narrowing somewhat, seem to have bottomed out. At this point the only major changes in polling should occur with the debates.

Toss-Up States

Georgia

Last week Trump held a 4 point lead. After 5 new polls (bringing the total up to 29) he sees a very minimal gain to 4.31; 43.76-39.45. Georgia remains a Trump lean for the week. This could change next week.

Missouri

Trump saw a minimal gain in the state helped by the last poll performed which showed him up 5. Three new polls have him up by 3.96 in 23 polls 42.22-38.26 Missouri is coming closer and closer to becoming a Likely state. If Trump continues getting results like the last one released Missouri will be a virtual lock for him.

Florida

Florida continues to be the standard bearer for polls, now having 56 in the state, and it was a good week for Trump who lead in 4 of the 6 (by 4,3,10, and 4). The two that Clinton lead in were miniscule (both by 2) therefor her lead has shrunk to 2.12; 43.71-41.. Trump definitely has the momentum in the state at this point.

Arizona

The last four polls all showed Trump leading so he was able to stem the tide. He increased his lead to 1.37 in 27 polls 40.81-39.44. Still a smaller lead than what he should be seeing in the reliable red state, even in a week that saw substantial gains for Trump, this lead is way too small.

Ohio

Seven new polls in the state and while Trump lead in four, this state continues to show very close polls, Clinton's largest lead was 7 and Trump's largest lead was 5. Clinton's lead has shrunk to 0.95 in 44 polls, 41.02-40.07. Trump is gaining ground very slowly at this point. The polls are in his favor at this time but it is minimal at best.

Iowa

After having a week that looked like Clinton had stopped Trump's momentum, every thing changed this week. He lead in the last five polls, including large leads in the last two (8 in both). Four of the five polls were conducted in the last week. In 31 polls Clinton's lead has shrunk to 0.71; 39.77-39.06. In a running theme Trump has complete momentum right now in this state as well.

North Carolina

Three new polls this week with one showing a healthy 5 point lead for Trump. The other showed a tie and Clinton lead. Just like last week, the last poll of the week showed a Clinton lead but she still leads the state by 0.59 in 42 polls 42.33-41.74. North Carolina, more than any other state is going to go back and forth for both candidates. Currently, Clinton still leads but it is trending heavily towards Trump.

Nevada

Five new polls this week, definitely in Trump's favor. Trump lead in the last four polls and now has a 0.48 lead in 23 polls 40.22-39.74. Acting like the true Toss-up state that Nevada is, Nevada has flipped to a lean for Trump at this point.

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton lead down to 52.67-27.07 (lead was 26.31 down to 25.6)
New York - Clinton lead down to 50.82-31.71 (lead was 19.34 down to 19.11
Massachusetts - Clinton lead down to 50.5-28.31 (lead was 22.47 down to 22.19)
Vermont - Clinton lead up to 46.22-17.78 (lead was 28 up to 28.44)
DC - Clinton lead 45.8-25.4 (lead at 21.4)
Maine D-1 - Clinton lead down to 48.5-31.25 (lead was 18.5 down to 17.25)

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton lead down to 39.3-28.5 (lead was 10.87 down to 10.8)
New Jersey - Clinton lead down to 45-34 (lead was 11.22 down to 11)
Connecticut - Clinton lead up to 45.07-33.29 (lead was 11.59 up to 11.78)
New Hampshire - Clinton lead down to 43.59-37.05 (lead was 6.74 down to 6.54)
Pennsylvania - Clinton lead down to 44.32-39.07 (lead was 5.5 down to 5.25)
Rhode Island - Clinton lead down to 40.14-27.57 (lead was 13.33 down to 12.57)

LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump leads 39.75-36.75 (lead remains at 3.

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump lead up to 50.69-31.69 (lead was 18.91 up to 19)
Alabama - Trump lead up to 55.23-30 (lead was 25.18 up to 25.23)
West Virginia - Trump lead down to 49.57-31.79 (lead was 20 down to 17.78)
Mississippi - Trump lead up to 52.46-31.92 (lead was 19.63 up to 20.54)
Tennessee - Trump lead up to 45.69-29.46 (lead was 15.64 up to 16.23)

LIKELY

Arkansas - Trump lead up to 45.46-35.23 (lead was 9.5 up to 10.23)
Kentucky - Trump lead up to 43.79-34.43 (lead was 8.34 up to 9.36)
Virginia - Clinton lead down to 43.78-36 (lead was 7.93 down to 7.78)
South Carolina - Trump lead up to 44.79-37.74 (lead was 6 up to 7.05)

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton lead down to 46.35-31.3 (lead was 15.18 down to 15.05)

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump lead down to 44.94-34.39 (lead was 10.56 down to 10.55)
Michigan - Clinton lead down to 41.67-35.83 (lead was 6.23 down to 5.84
Wisconsin - Clinton lead down to 43.57-35.5 (lead was 8.18 down to 8.07)
Minnesota - Clinton lead down to 40.85-31 (lead was 10 down to 9.85)

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump lead up to 47.92-29 (lead was 18.37 up to 18.92)
North Dakota - Trump lead down to 46-23.33 (lead was 23.4 down to 22.67)

LIKELY

Texas - Trump lead up to 42.78-33.39 (lead was 8.78 up to 9.39)
Nebraska - Trump lead up to 43.09-31.64 (lead was 9.45 up to 11.45)
South Dakota - Trump lead up to 36.83-28.83 (lead was 5.6 up to 8)

LEAN

Kansas - Trump lead down to 41.56-36.89 (lead was 4.9 down do 4.67)

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Wyoming - Trump lead up to 47.83-21.83 (lead was 23 up to 26)
Idaho - Trump lead up to 45.53-26.4 (lead was 17.92 up to 19.13

LIKELY

Montana - Trump lead up to 41.5-32.6 (lead was 8.62 up to 8.9)
Colorado - Clinton lead up to 40.52-35.35(lead was 5 up to 5.17)
New Mexico - Clinton lead down to 38.36-32.91 (lead was 6.67 down to 5.45)
Utah - Trump lead up to 36.19-28.43 (lead was 6 up to 7.76)

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton lead up to 52.41-29.83 (lead was 22.57 up to 22.58)
Hawaii - Clinton lead up to 46.57-24 (lead was 22.5 up to 22.57)

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton leads 43-33 (lead unchanged at 10)
Washington - Clinton lead up to 44.57-30.79 (lead was 13.42 up to 13.78)
Alaska - Trump lead up to 38.33-29.78 (lead was 7.37 up to 8.55

WITH JOHNSON

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With just the polls that have included Johnson, Clinton is still projected to win the election. However, it clearly does favor Trump as he is able to take Nevada and Ohio.

IF ELECTION HELD TODAY

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Comments

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Note: The nature of the Internet makes it impractical for our staff to review every comment. Please note that those who post comments on this website may do so using a screen name, which may or may not reflect a website user's actual name. Readers should be careful not to assign comments to real people who may have names similar to screen names. Refrain from obscenity in your comments, and to keep discussions civil, don't say anything in a way your grandmother would be ashamed to read.

"but the Clinton campaign took too much of a risk and did not really answer any of his lies about her" shows once again how your silly little highly subjective analysis is inane, stupid, sophomoric, and highlights your vile liberalism. It is no small wonder those around you flee like rats on a sinking ship. Make America Great Again!!!!

-- Posted by divorcedugly on Mon, Sep 19, 2016, at 10:57 AM
How can anybody lie about hilldawg?

Nobody can make up better lies than her!!

Suck it up buttercup, your candidate is toast!!

-- Posted by allstar69 on Mon, Sep 19, 2016, at 10:53 PM
Ahh my trolls are back. Hip hip hooray. You realize ugly that much like your candidate you actually didn't refute a word I said, you just instead insulted.

So if you want to refute anything I say go for it. If not, well just keep up the insults and maybe one day they will actually affect me.

As for your charges, allstar, that Clinton lies, I could cite non-partisan websites that show statistically the most honest politician in the race is Clinton and the most dishonest is Trump. However, if you are anything like Trump you ignore facts and just go with your gut.

Again, while I am happy the trolls are back I would have expected a lot better, especially more than chanting a campaign slogan at me and insulting me at the level of a 7th grader.

Oh well.

-- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Tue, Sep 20, 2016, at 6:13 PM
What liberal trolls like you do best! Name-calling!

-- Posted by allstar69 on Tue, Sep 20, 2016, at 7:56 PM
You can't bring yourself to type Hillary or Clinton and you want to chastise me for name calling? Move along allstar.

Though it has been steadily hilarious that for years on this site, that things that every single one of you want to chastise me doing you do yourselves to a much more vulgar level while doing it. Well done.

-- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Tue, Sep 20, 2016, at 8:41 PM
Really amusing when petulant little children get all riled up!

-- Posted by allstar69 on Wed, Sep 21, 2016, at 7:42 AM
Petulant is correct!! He is also a wounded, used, medicated, depressed, manchild so it could get fun should Trump prevail. His impish mind will be tested to the brink. Make America Great Again!!!

-- Posted by divorcedugly on Wed, Sep 21, 2016, at 8:49 AM
It is way to easy to annoy both of you. Yawn. Where are the actual challengers who actually put thought into what they were writing? You two are simply children.

-- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Wed, Sep 21, 2016, at 1:51 PM
Is that the best you got??? FAIL!!!!!

-- Posted by allstar69 on Wed, Sep 21, 2016, at 3:42 PM
If you are trying to insult someone, Michael, you should really try harder. Mostly, you are pathetically petulant, mildly amusing, and predictable. Kind of like the screaming tantrums you hear every day in WalMart. In fact, it appears that is what you are trying to imitate! That would be one thing you seem to be good at, however.

-- Posted by allstar69 on Wed, Sep 21, 2016, at 3:50 PM
Hendricks, prove where anything Trump said about Hillary is a lie!! And don't quote your left wing nut job liberal sources. Show us true responsible journalism.You were taught well to listen to all the lies that your daddy told you to listen too. Why don't you listen to what the true journalists are saying, but that won't agree with you and daddy's stories (LIES) that you want to spread. I"m sure everyone on here can prove that whatever you come up with is nothing but a load of garbage!!

-- Posted by smz on Wed, Sep 21, 2016, at 4:35 PM
If the election were held today, it's really a toss up.

Like I said months ago, Trump is going to win BIG.

And I still have no horse in this race. As a political atheist, I don't believe any of them. And I also don't think getting all wound up about the election will do anything but raise your blood pressure.

Thanks, Michael, for doing all this analysis for us. Most interesting.

-- Posted by JohnGalt1968 on Fri, Sep 23, 2016, at 3:28 PM

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