Week 14 General Election Projection

http://www.270towin.com/maps/QRgO2

Mississippi moves from Likely to Safe for Trump

Nebraska is a state worth watching. Three polls have been released two with Trump leading by 6 and 7 and one showing Clinton up by 3. This could be hinting at Clinton winning the 3rd District in the state which includes Omaha and potentially also the Second District which includes Lincoln

Washington moves from Safe to Likely for Clinton

TOSS-UPS

Missouri

There have been 13 polls performed in the state. Trump leads by 4.3; 44.38-44.08. The state is trending towards Trump. Trump led in four of the five polls released since the last update including the newest poll which puts him up 51-35.

Florida

Nine new polls were released since the last update and Clinton's lead now sits at 3.9; 45.07-41.17. Florida is still trending for Clinton. Trump did see two polls in his favor but one was for 3 the other by two.

South Carolina

There have no been 8 polls in the state with Trump leading Clinton by 3.25; 44.5-41.25. The state is holding for Trump for right now. While he hasn't lead every poll, Clinton has only tied him. However, his largest lead has only been 9. Two consecutive polls had the race tied but the last poll gave him a three point lead.

Ohio

Seven new polls have been released for a total of 30. Clinton's lead has extended to 2.63; 42.8-40.7. Ohio is still in Clinton's corner but Trump has been doing better in the polling despite Clinton extending her lead.

North Carolina

After no polls in the previous update 8 new polls have been released bringing the total up to 30. Clinton has increased her lead to 2.63; 42.8-40.17. The state is trending fairly heavily towards Clinton as in the last 8 polls she lead in 6 with one tied and Trump leading in the other. The silver lining for Trump is that poll where he is leading was the last poll performed.

Arizona

Seven new polls in the state bringing the total to 17. Trump has benefited and his lead has increased to 2; 43.06-41.06. Arizona is trending back to Trump thanks to a few polls with him leading 7 or more. Will have to keep watching as in the last three polls his leads have been 4, 3, and 4.

Georgia

There have been 18 polls performed in the state and is another state that has good news for Trump as his slim lead has gone up to 1.5; 43.67-42.17. Georgia is now trending back to Trump as the last three polls favored him.

Iowa

There are now 20 polls in the state and where Clinton's numbers had been stuck in the mud she is now giving up ground to Trump. Her lead has shrunk to 1.3; 40.8-39.5. The trend is definitely in Trump's favor right now. He was leading in the last two polls conducted. In the other three polls Clinton had a lead in one and the other two were tied.

Nevada

There are now 12 polls in the state and Clinton is slowly beginning to pull away upping her lead to 0.75; 42.17-41.42. Clinton has now lead in the last 6 consecutive polls including her best to date which gave her a 43-35 lead.

NO POLLS

TRUMP

Nebraska D-1
Nebraska D-2
Nebraska D-3
South Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming

CLINTON

DC
Hawaii
Rhoda Island

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton leads 57.5-29
New York - Clinton leads 53.15-32.65
Massachusetts - Clinton leads 52.17-30.
Vermont - Clinton leads 39-20.5
Maine D-1 - Clinton leads 48-33

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton leads 43-27
New Jersey - Clinton leads 44.1-38.93
Connecticut - Clinton leads 47.2-37.8
New Hampshire - Clinton leads 44.1-38.93
Pennsylvania - Clinton leads 45.48-39.59

LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump leads by 37-36

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump leads 51.75-37.5
Alabama - Trumps leads 56-36.4
West Virginia - Trump leads 52.83-33.5
Mississippi - Trump leads 52.4-37.4

LIKELY

Arkansas - Trump leads 47-36
Tennessee - Trump leads 45.8-33
Kentucky - Trump leads 43.67-35.83
Virginia - Clinton leads 44.68-37.18
MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton leads 49.73-31.73

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump leads 49-36.56
Michigan - Clinton leads 43.3-36.3
Wisconsin - Clinton leads 44.68-36.91
Minnesota - Clinton leads 43.8-35

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump leads 52.2-31

LIKELY

Texas - Trump leads 45.8-33
Kansas - Trump leads 45.44-36.56

LEAN

Nebraska - Trump leads 42.33-39.33

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Montana - Trump leads 51-30
Idaho - Trump leads 47.33-29

LIKELY

Colorado - Clinton leads 49-35
New Mexico - Clinton leads 41.67-35
Utah - Trump leads 37-31

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton leads 54.41-30.65

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton leads 43.71-37.57
Washington - Clinton leads 46.5-33

IF ELECTION HELD TODAY 9/6

http://www.270towin.com/maps/njVKd

WHAT ABOUT JOHNSON AND STEIN?

So each week I will include a map including the top non two party nominees. The only candidate that has enough of a chance to make noise is the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. He is currently on 49 of 50 state ballots (including DC). Only Kentucky does not have him on the ballot but the party is in the process of getting certified for that state.

Jill Stein of the Green Party is only on 42 state ballots. In three of the eight states (Indiana, North Carolina, and Georgia) she is only a write-in option. In two of the eight states (North Dakota and Wyoming) they have filed and are waiting to be put on the ballot. The other three (South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Nevada she will not be appearing on the ballot and there is no write-in option. To top that off she has barely registered in the polls losing out in some state polls to Harambe the gorilla.

Because Johnson, nationally is approaching the 10-12% mark and he will soon be on all 51 ballots I have used polls that have included him. On the state level they are far less prevalent.

Again, the map below only has polls where Johnson is a candidate.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/rDR2J

Now, the sample size is lower as far as the polls go, but what you can see is that despite what the main stream media is telling you, Johnson's numbers at the state level are affecting Trump more than they are affecting Clinton.