Week 11 General Election Projection

UPDATE

I got home a day earlier than I thought I would and several polls were released on Friday and Saturday so this is a full update.

I will not be in town this weekend so I am releasing my projection a day early.

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Virginia

With 13 polls now performed in the state Clinton has increased her lead to 7; 43.86-36.86. If Trump doesn't narrow by next Friday Virginia will come down form being a toss-up state.

Pennsylvania

Three new polls came out in the state (up to 22 total) none were good for Trump. Clinton now leads by 6.18 44.91-38.73.

Florida

Three new polls in the state (30 total) and the state is now a little closer. Clinton's lead shrunk to 3.2; 44.59-41.37

Ohio

The main changes you will see is that Ohio goes from a likely Clinton state to a lean for Clinton. This is actually going to be on me. I had one of Trump's numbers wrong in my tabulation that gave Clinton a three point lead higher than what she actually had. I have her lead now at 2.44 42.22-39.78 with 23 polls performed.

Iowa

Clinton may well be on her way to losing this state. While her overall numbers have vastly improved over the last few weeks her number here have actually shrunk. The state is definitely trending towards Trump (not bad since he called all Iowans idiots) but Clinton still has a lead of 2.08; 40.79-38.71 in 14 polls.

North Carolina

1 new poll was taken this week bringing the total to 21 and it helped Clinton extend her lead to 1.36; 43.27-41.91.

Arizona

Trump did get some good news out of Arizona with a new poll this week pushing his lead up to 0.9; 42.3-41.4 (10 polls).

Georgia

Trump still has a razor thin edge in this state even with Clinton leading in the last two polls in the state. He is currently in the lead 43.14-42.14 (leading by 1) in 13 polls.

Nevada

Trump was leading by 1 point last week but a new poll (bringing the total to 8) has shrunk that to 0.63; 42.88-42.25.

The other change I would like to note is that Maine's third district has actually been polled and Trump had a slight lead at that time of 1 37-36.

NO POLLS

TRUMP

Nebraska D-1
Nebraska D-2
Nebraska D-3
South Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming

CLINTON

DC
Hawaii
Rhoda Island

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton leads 62.33-27.67
New York - Clinton leads 53.73-33.67
Massachusetts - Clinton leads 55.33-29.33
Vermont - Clinton leads 39-20.5
Maine D-1 - Clinton leads 48-33

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton leads 42-32
New Jersey - Clinton leads 47.13-34.38
Connecticut - Clinton leads 44.5-38
New Hampshire - Clinton leads by 44.6-38.56

LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump leads by 37-36

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump leads 52-36
Alabama - Trumps leads 57-33
West Virginia - Trump leads 59-27

LIKELY

Arkansas - Trump leads 47-36
Tennessee - Trump leads 45.5-32.5
Kentucky - Trump leads 41.33-29.67

LEAN

Mississippi - Trump leads 46-43
South Carolina - Trump lads 44-40.67 The newest poll out os this state had Trump up only by 2. If this trends continues South Carolina could become a tossup state

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton leads 48.5-32

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump leads 46.25-36.75
Michigan - Clinton leads 43.14-34.79
Wisconsin - Clinton leads 46.19-36.31
Minnesota - Clinton leads 45.5-36.5

LEAN

Missouri - Trump leads 43.29-39.14

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump leads 50.5-28.5

LIKELY

Texas - Trump leads 42.25-35.25
Kansas - Trump leads 43.4-36.2

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Montana - Trump leads 51-30
Idaho - Trump leads 47.33-29

LIKELY

Colorado - Clinton leads 41.67-36.33
New Mexico - Clinton leads 41-33
Utah - Trump leads 35.88-30.88

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton leads 52.71-31.86

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton leads 43.5-37
Washington - Clinton leads 48.5-36.5

Hillary currently leads the projections 340 delegates to 198. To break it down further Clinton currently has 142 safe delegates to Trump's 50. Clinton currently also leads in the likely delegates 130-89. Clinton has a narrow lead in the lean category 68-59.

More importantly when the safe and likely states are put together Clinton has enough delegates to win the election 272-139 if the election were held today. In other she could lose all the states leaning to Trump as well as Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina and win the election 272 delegates to 266. At this point Trump not only needs to solidify his lean delegates and win over Clinton's delegates he would need to pick off one of Clinton's Likely delegates (obviously his best shot is New Hampshire).

At this point Trump is in some serious trouble, but remember we still have just short of 90 days to the elections. None of the three debates have taken place yet. There is still a long way to go.

IF ELECTION HELD TODAY

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COMPARING THE LEAN STATES

Since I mentioned above the at this Trump not only needs to keep his lean states but take Clinton's lean states and at least one of her likely states in order to win; I thought I would take a look at the comparison in polls for the lean states between the two.

For Clinton, her issue is that every single one of her lean states are toss up states, however, she does health leads in all four states right with Iowa really only looking like the most likely gain for Trump.

For Trump, even though the margins are closer he does have pretty good news. One more good poll for Trump in Missouri and the state goes from a lean to likely. Also three of his lean states are typically solid Republican states. History would dictate that, even close, Trump should still take all three. Maine's District 2 is an outlier in the Northeast as it can and has gone either Democratic or Republican. I would not expect him to win this district unless he wins the race overall. Nevada is a razor thin lead for him and is trending towards Clinton at this point.

Clinton

Ohio: 2.44
North Carolina: 1.36
Florida: 3.04
Iowa: 2.08
Avg: 2.23

Trump

Maine D-2: 1
South Carolina: 3.33
Georgia: 1
Mississippi: 3
Missouri: 4.15
Arizona: 0.9
Nevada: 0.63
Avg: 2.00

ELECTION HELD TODAY

With today being a Tuesday and a good comparison between a day of good news for Clinton and a day of good news for Trump here is the latest map of it the election were held today

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