Super Tuesday

We are here. Super Tuesday or what the media is calling SEC Primaries because some of the states have teams in the Southeastern Conference and that really seems to be the only reason.

Two things are clear going into tomorrow; If Hillary can follow up her dominant performance in South Carolina with dominating performances tomorrow the Democratic primary is all but hers. The state to watch tomorrow will be Massachusetts. The state is in both of the candidates backyards. Hillary is from New York and Bernie from Vermont, but most people watching the race say that it should be a state that Bernie should win. If Hillary wins the state the nomination is essentially hers.

On the Republican side quite a few things will be decided tomorrow; though the presumptive nominee will likely not be one of them.

Here is a fun one. Colorado's Republican caucus means absolutely nothing tomorrow as the delegate that are elected do not have to make their vote until the national convention. The primary state to watch here tomorrow is Texas. If Cruz loses his "home" state tomorrow he is done as far as the nomination. I think after tomorrow Trump will continue his huge lead but it should be down to him and Rubio. Trump has flat lined in his leads (they are not increasing or decreasing), while Rubio is rising and Cruz is declining.

First the latest numbers followed by my thoughts on Super Tuesday.

Democratic Super Tuesday:

Headed into the day Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in the committed delegate count 96-65. With 12 races (13 including Democrats abroad which have from the 1-8 to vote) and just over 1,000 delegates up for grabs let us take a look at the polling for the states:

Alabama - Clinton has an average lead of 71-23%

Arkansas - Clinton has a lead of 57-32% from a poll released on February 17th.

Colorado - Sanders has a lead of 49-44 from a poll released on February 18th.

Georgia - Clinton has an average lead of 61-35%

Massachusetts - Clinton has an average lead of 52-42%. Something to note is that on February 23 Emerson College Polling Society showed the state tied at 46%. They just released a new poll and it has Hillary with a 54-43% lead.

Minnesota - Clinton with lead on 59-25% from a poll on January 21.

Oklahoma - Sanders has an average lead of 49-43%.

Tennessee - Clinton has an average lead of 60-34%.

Texas - Clinton has an average lead of 61-33%.

Vermont - Sanders has a lead of 78-13% from a poll on February 18th.

Virginia - Clinton has an average lead of 56-36%.

Hillary Clinton is going to have a huge day tomorrow and will take a commanding and more than likely insurmountable lead tomorrow. Despite the newest polling I still believe that Sanders will take Massachusetts but it will be close enough that any delegates he will pick up will not really help him. Hillary will win 8 of the 12 races. I was hoping this race would go until late April or early May but it may not.

Republican Super Tuesday:

There are 14 races tomorrow with the potential of 689 delegates awarded (though 94 are unbound and will not be decided until the national convention). On thing to note about the polls below there is only one state where the current leader has 50% or higher support which again points to tomorrow not deciding the presumptive nominee:

Alabama - Trump leads Rubio and Cruz 42-20-17%. Carson comes in at 11%.

Alaska - Trump leads Cruz at 28-24%. No other candidate has above 10%. Last poll in the state was released on January 13.

Arkansas - Cruz led Rubio and Trump at 27-23-23% on February 5. Carson came in at 11%. Arkansas found itself a battle ground state as all three candidates were in the state over the weekend.

Georgia - Trump leads Rubio and Cruz 36-22-21%

Massachusetts - Trump leads Rubio and Kasich 50-20-14%. Cruz is in at 4th with 10%.

Minnesota - Rubio led Cruz and Trump 23-21-18% on January 21st. Carson came in at 11%.

Oklahoma - Trump leads Rubio and Cruz 33-22-22%. In the last poll before Super Tuesday Cruz led Rubio.

Tennessee - Trump led Cruz and Rubio 40-22-19% on February 26th.

Texas - Cruz leads Trump and Rubio 36-30-16%. The last three polls to come out in the state had Cruz leading Trump 36-25%, 33-32%, 35-32%. The interesting thing in Texas is that the delegates are proportional unless the winning candidate gets more than 50% then the winner takes all.

Vermont - Trump led Rubio and Kasich 33-15-14% on February 18th.

Virginia - Trump leads Rubio and Cruz 40-23-17%.

Of the 11 races that count tomorrow Trump leads in 8, Cruz in 2, and Rubio in 1. The winners tomorrow, though will not be the story as in the Trump led states Rubio will come in second in almost all of them rendering this a two person race. There are 5 men left in the race. Carson does not appear to be dropping out anytime soon despite not finishing above 10% since Iowa, Kasich has said he will not drop out unless he loses in Ohio, and Cruz and Rubio are still within reach. However, after tomorrow, this race will be between Trump and Rubio.

UPDATE 1:

The first three states are coming in. Hillary was won Georgia and Virginia. Sanders has won Vermont. Trump has won Georgia. In a surprise though Virginia and Vermont have not been called. In the last polls that were taken both states were easily for Trump. The fact that at this point they are close has to put some pressure on Trump even if he does end up winning both states. The next four polls close at 7 central time in Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Alabama.

UPDATE 2:

Clinton and Trump have won Alabama and Tennessee. Trump won Massachusetts. Too early to call in Oklahoma for both parties and too early to call in Massachusetts for Democrats. Vermont has gone from too early to call between Trump and Kasich to now too close to call.

UPDATE 3:

Arkansas has closed. Hillary wins on the Democratic side, too early to call in Arkansas between Trump and Cruz.

UPDATE 4:

Trump has won Virginia but in a very close race and closer than the polls showed, to this point. Clinton and Cruz have won Texas.

UPDATE 5:

In a bit of a surprise Cruz has been declared the winner in Oklahoma. Sanders has also been declared the winner in Oklahoma.

UPDATE 6:

Trump has been declared the winner in Arkansas. Bad news for Cruz who spent more money in the state than any candidate.

UPDATE 7:

No calls in this update but at this time Vermont is too close to call on the Republican side, Massachusetts as well for the Democratic side. Minnesota and Colorado too early to call.

UPDATE 8:

Sanders has been declared the winner in Colorado. Hillary has won Massachusetts. Still too close in Vermont for the Republicans and too early in Minnesota for both parties.

UPDATE 9:

Rubio has won the state of Minnesota.

UPDATE 10:

Sanders has won the state of Minnesota. Clinton has won 7 of the states, Bernie 4. Still waiting for Vermont to be decided and for Alaska to close.

UPDATE 11:

Trump has finally been declared the winner in Vermont in a much closer than anticipated race against Kasich.

UPDATE 12:

Cruz was declared the winner of the Alaska caucus finalizing all the Super Tuesday primaries.