Seasons, political and otherwise

Is it just me, or is the sun coming up a bit later? I don’t know that summer has fully let go of its grip yet, but we’re getting closer. I’m one of those people who would take 100 degrees over ten any day of the week, and ten-degree weather is on the way.

With the change in the seasons, our many months of speculation about the 2024 national elections are beginning to take a more realistic, tangible form. Print, radio, and television news have covered the first Republican debate from every angle imaginable, and by now, I’m sure you have heard an exhaustive analysis of who won, who lost, who had a good day, and who didn’t. I’ll not bore you with that, but now that the smoke from round one has cleared, we can take a serious look at how people are positioning themselves from a policy perspective, which is far more interesting and important than who landed a clever punch.

Youthful business guy Vivek Ramaswamy is clearly the fresh-faced outsider candidate who speaks with a great deal of candor. His over-polished delivery is energetic but doesn’t come across as being thoughtful; he does not convey wisdom. At his age, he needs more of that rather than less.

From a policy perspective, he has promised to drastically reduce the size of the federal government, which is both laudable and necessary, but he is talking about individual jobs rather than privatizing programs and agencies. That’s politically unwise. If you think we had a tough time getting rid of slavery, wait until we try to take government jobs away. The forces arrayed against him will be both powerful and brutal.

Ramaswamy had a considerable surge in small donations after the debate, but for now, contributions from large donors are waning. I can see him being awarded a cabinet position in the eventuality of a second Trump administration, but I don’t currently see his viability beyond that, certainly not as a presidential candidate in this cycle.

I would also view his isolationist stance as a disqualifier if there weren’t so many other candidates taking similar positions. That concerns me, but I have to acknowledge that if Ramaswamy, the youngest contender, is the face of candidates to come, we can do worse. We have done worse.

I have been watching Tim Scott with considerable interest for many years. Some of his urban economic development initiatives remind me of Jack Kemp back in the 80s, so from a legislative perspective, Tim Scott is my kind of guy. In spite of that strong policy background, his pandering to the Ralph Reed crowd is more than squirm-worthy, and his viability as a mainstream candidate is becoming increasingly questionable. As a VP pick for a Trump campaign, he would present a refreshing counterpoise and make the ticket tolerable for the non-maga camp, but it’s unlikely that he will go the distance during this cycle. A failed presidential run never hurts a senate career, and I wish a long, successful one for Mr. Scott.

Scott doesn’t wear his religion on his sleeve nearly as much as Mike Pence does. I’m not sure why Pence is in the race, but I agree with Chris Christie when he says that Pence may have saved the Constitution. That sounds overblown, and Christie’s motivation was not to credit Pence but to take a shot at Trump. Still, Pence deserves more credit than he has been given for standing by a constructionist read of the Constitution during the certification of electors. It doesn’t automatically qualify him for the presidency, but the guy should be recognized for being the grown-up in the room when we needed one.

Doug Burgum seems to be the GOP answer to Marianne Williamson. He’s not a bad guy, but he’s a little on the quirky side and has fallen in line with the isolationist crowd. He and Asa Hutchinson are probably the most at risk of not qualifying for the next debate. Asa is a good guy, too. He just woke up in the wrong century.

DeSantis is presumably the one to beat, but he’s polling dramatically lower than Trump. Despite his military experience, he has described the war in Ukraine as a “territorial dispute” and has expressed resistance to further US involvement. If he’s more concerned about Disney than Putin or Xi, he doesn’t belong in the big leagues.

If I look at the non-Trump field as it stands today and eliminate the isolationists and the theocrats, I’m left with one candidate, Nikki Haley. As a former governor and U.N. Ambassador, Haley is a serious player. She runs hot and cold as a speaker but could still be a viable candidate and would bring a healthy mix of domestic and international experience to the table. At present, I find myself rooting for her. Still, the sad truth is we’re probably looking at another four years of puzzling, incoherent policies or another angst-inducing four years of childish antics on one side and a crazed, unhinged opposition on the other.

We have a long way to go before November of 2024, and all manner of events can happen. The only thing we can be sure of is that very soon, our nights will grow cooler, the leaves will turn, and we will soon be bombarded by pumpkin spice-infused everything. The smoke of weekend grills will be replaced by evening fireplaces, small animals will try to take refuge in our homes, and unthinking people will gripe because they believe Christmas merchandise is on display way too early. The same could be said of the candidates for the 2024 election, but we are wise to pay at least occasional attention.