Looking forward to 2024

It’s been quite a summer so far. Just a few months ago, people were talking about a “red wave,” and flipping both the House and Senate to Republican majorities. Historically predictable mid-term losses have plagued first-term presidents consistently for the last 75 years. The party of the incumbent president, on average, has lost 26 seats in the House, and four in the Senate since World War II. Add to that, double-digit inflation and five-dollar gasoline, and the Republicans can’t lose, can they? Well yes, they can.

The Republicans were well on their way to a mid-term landslide, but then the Supreme Court stepped in. As it turns out, Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito are as good at mobilizing the Democrat base as Barack Obama was at selling AR-15s. As of the most recent polling, the Republicans are still expected to pick up enough seats in the House to control that body, but many are now calling the Senate too close to call. We’re still three months away from the election, so those numbers will not remain static. The event that ultimately swings the election in one direction or another, may not have happened yet.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are wringing their hands over 2024. Barring unforeseen circumstances, President Biden is on the fast track to Jimmy Carter 2.0. Some say he will not run in 2024. Others predict that he will resign soon after the midterms. Our Vice President, however, insists that Biden will run in 2024 and that she will be his running mate.

If he did, as many say, resign for health reasons after the midterms, we would then have a President Harris, and the Democrats aren’t looking forward to that nearly as much as the Republicans. She ascended as his running mate, mostly due to old-time political-geography math, but only after suspending her unconvincing campaign in the 2020 primary. Richard Nixon was known to say that Spiro Agnew was little more than his “insurance against assassination,” and that is how Kamala Harris is viewed by many on both sides of the aisle.

As if this wasn’t enough excitement, we have an ongoing show trial held almost entirely by Democrats and a few “Lincoln Project” Republicans investigating the January 6 incident. The militant groups, “Proud Boys” and “Oath Keepers” are clearly bad actors. Most of us didn’t need a trial to convince us, but the committee has continued to expose video footage of those groups that turn the stomachs of citizens who respect our Capitol and the processes of democracy.

Please, please, don’t tell ardent Trump supporters that I said this, but Trump has been damaged too. Yes, it’s a single-sided sham of a show trial that would make any self-respecting kangaroo blush, but polls show that Cheney and Pelosi have succeeded in casting just enough doubt on Mr. Trump to dampen the enthusiasm of traditional Republicans and suppress potential swing votes.

Make no mistake, I still get a burr in my paw when otherwise responsible journalists use the term “lie” to characterize Trump’s challenge of election results. Accusations of lying imply that a person deliberately deceives others, knowing that what is said is not true. If journalists can read Trump’s thoughts, why don’t they just come out and say, ”deluded” or “unhinged?” What else could make a man stretch his arm far enough to grab a steering wheel from the rear seat of an eighteen-foot limousine? I think Trump had reason to believe that some vote tampering took place, but 60 court challenges failed to show that any were severe enough to change the outcome of the election. The real loser, in my opinion, is Rudy Giuliani, the man who attended every funeral humanly possible after 9-11. His legacy will be forever scarred by the efforts he made on Trump’s behalf.

Yes, I believe that Trump has been gravely wounded by the hearings, and they aren’t over yet. Democrats will do their best to drag them out through October. Do I think for a moment that would keep him from running again? If it were anyone else, yes. Trump? I will make no wagers.

What is evident is that fellow Republicans who were once expected to politely step aside if Trump announced, are now dropping hints, forming committees, and sharpening their knives. Trump’s nemesis du jour, Liz Cheney has been mentioned as a possible candidate, but we already knew that she has no allegiance to Trump. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Ted Cruz from Texas, Nikki Haley of South Carolina, former VP Mike Pence, Rick Scott, also of Florida (not to be confused with the better candidate, Tim Scott of South Carolina) and Tom Cotton of Arkansas are now making the familiar pre-announcement overtures without regard to Trump’s intentions.

Mike Pompeo, the former representative from Kansas, Director of the CIA, and Secretary of State has dropped a lot of weight and is making the rounds on news channels. Pompeo is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but he was educated at West Point and Harvard, represented Wichita Kansas and knows government backward and forward. He’s one to watch.

On the left, the long knives are already out in the open. Liz Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans, JB Pritzker of Illinois, and Stacy Abrams of Georgia have all been the subjects of speculation. Gavin Newsome, the presumed front-runner, is already running ads in Florida with hopes of taking a chunk out of DeSantis, but I don’t see the rest of the country wanting to be more like California. If he ran for GQ model, he would be elected in a flash, otherwise, I think he would have a rough time in flyover country.

The other name being bandied about is Hillary Clinton. In my view, the worst of all possible scenarios would be a Clinton-Trump rematch. Regrettably, our country has been voting along a nearly 50/50 split since 2000, and both Trump and Clinton are extremely divisive, polarizing figures. I don’t think that would benefit anyone except the cadre of D.C. attorneys who get called upon for deceptively named, “independent” prosecutions.

Whatever the case, the winners of the races in 2022 and 2024 will inherit an economic mess. Inflation continues to drive GNP, GDP and most other indicators of growth downward, and the only thing holding our economy up right now is low unemployment. Most economists believe that it will take high interest rates to reverse the trend, and that recession is imminent, if not already underway.

Through all of that, I try to remain hopeful. Both parties have a deep bench and many bright, talented Americans. With any luck, the parties will recognize the better candidates on both sides and give us choices that won’t leave us disappointed at the voting booth. I hope the parties, or more importantly, we as voters in primary elections do our homework and rise to the challenge.