Wag the Dog

Last weekend, I broke down and rented a movie. It’s not something that I normally do. Those of us who have embraced the “cord cutter” life, know that there is more free entertainment available than we could ever possibly digest, so purchasing content seems rather awkward to me.

In this instance, I needed specific content, so I coughed up the four bucks. Perhaps you recall the motion picture, “Wag the Dog.” It was a 1997 comedy where a political fixer (Robert DeNiro), with the help of a Hollywood producer (Dustin Hoffman), manufactures a war to occupy the news cycle in the last ten days of a presidential campaign. Interestingly, the purpose of the fictitious war is to detract attention to a sex scandal, and the film was released to theaters about a month before Drudge printed the opening volley in the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

Although I had seen the movie when it came out 25 years ago, it was a must-see for me given recent events in eastern Europe. In the movie, the fictional war takes place in Albania, which is chosen because relatively few Americans know anything about the country (not unlike our understanding of Ukraine). The similarities are many and I knew I could count on a good laugh.

While I have absolutely no belief that the war in Ukraine is manufactured as it was in the movie, I do have reason to believe that the disinformation machines are active on both sides of the conflict. Has the Russian military suffered 6,000 to 9,000 casualties? It might be a sin to wish it were true, but it’s definitely naive to believe it without confirmation. Is there a “ghost of Kyiv” who single-handedly shot down six Russian aircraft? Did a Ukrainian soldier intentionally blow himself up on a bridge to prevent a Russian advancement? News reports have given that soldier a name, Vitaly Skakum Volodymyrovych, which lends some credence to the story, but let’s face it. We don’t know.

What we do know is that, historically, body counts have been manipulated during times of war to embolden the troops, maintain confidence of the public or simply intimidate the opposition. We are also painfully aware of the vast differences in reporting to be found among our own major news outlets.

Being certain that I can’t be the only one who is curious about such things, I consulted Snopes. Snopes is an online fact-checker that is not without its detractors, but it’s a household name and at least a place to start. Snopes handily discredited a number of spoofed and misattributed videos that have appeared on social media and in news broadcasts (including one of our ghost-pilot) but did not satisfy any of my other questions. They don’t know either.

This is not my only flirtation with disinformation and debunking. As it happens, I am a sometimes consumer of late-night radio and am exposed to conspiracy theories that range from the existence of worldwide cabals to alternative theories on the Kennedy assassination.

The fact is, I like conspiracy theorists. I find them entertaining. Their only fault is that they tend to be wrong a lot, but they don’t seem to care. One hero of mine is the Reverend and broadcast evangelist Harold Camping who predicted that Judgment Day would occur in September of 1994. When that failed, he pushed the date a few weeks into October, and still nothing happened. In 2005, he predicted a rapture in May of 2011 followed by a host of cataclysmic events until our final destruction in October of 2011. Again, nothing, but Harold took it in stride. He just sharpened his pencil and went about his calculations and made large sums of money from preaching until the world outlived him in 2013. Harold was 92.

Yes, Harold fleeced a few people who shared his beliefs, but for the most part, his biggest crime was being wrong. Late-night conspiracy theorists are really no different. They might sell a few books or pick up some speaking fees. A few might even write a film treatment, but in the end, they are usually just wrong.

The good news about conspiracy theorists is that they force us to think “out-of-the-box” and, if only for a moment, consider what seems to be outrageous. They also remind us to look at current news coverage with a suspicious eye, as we all do. We must.

Do I believe that the war in Ukraine is a fabricated “Wag the Dog” scenario? Absolutely not. Real people are getting hurt. Do I believe that the world is run by Bond Villains and secret societies? No. What I find hard not to believe is that the fates of millions, tens of millions and perhaps hundreds of millions are in the hands of a relative few.

They don’t meet at Bohemian Grove, the Vatican or Davos (Ok. Maybe Davos). What we know is this: whether it’s finance, natural resources, media or power tends to consolidate at the top. While our political system evolves organically at the lower levels, the major political parties are private, independent entities and not beholden to our Constitution.

So, as I read and listen to the events in Ukraine unfold, I do so with caution. While it may sometimes appear that The United States owns exclusive license to political Kabuki theater (like the Maine in Havana Harbor or the Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin), we don’t. Instead, we have the privilege of being exposed to funny movies and crazy conspiracy theories to keep us awake at night, to keep us alert, and hopefully, a bit less gullible.