Presidential predictions and a lunch encounter

This week, we finally received a break from the 24-hour coverage of the Juice-Boxer Rebellion in Portland with the announcement of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate. I called that one several months ago, but I won’t take too deep a bow. It was simple electoral math in a party that places a high value on identity politics. Besides, predictions can be a cruel mistress. Think back to Y2K, or look around for flying cars.

A friend of mine recently reminded me of a fun story. At the tender age of eighteen, I had a relatively menial job on Connecticut Avenue in Washington DC, and the semi-famous “psychic” Jean Dixon had her office in the same building where I worked. For those of you without gray hair, Jean Dixon gained notoriety in the early sixties when she predicted the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Ms. Dixon had a flair for publicity, and went on to a long career, frequently gracing the covers of those fine tabloid newspapers that we see in the checkout aisle at the supermarket.

I had met Ms. Dixon on a couple of occasions, and yes, she wore those pill-box hats well into the 1980s. She also ate breakfast at the same place I did. In between our building and the famous “Mel Krupin’s” restaurant was Mel’s less formal diner that shared the same kitchen with the restaurant. It was just a long counter with swiveling bar stools, and strangers sat next to strangers. No social distancing.

Well, on election day of 1980, Ms. Dixon sat down next to me and ordered her usual cup of hot water with a lemon, and we exchanged pleasantries. After a bit of quiet dining, she turned to me and asked who I thought was going to win the election. Jean Dixon, the famous psychic, asked me. I got it right then too.

Although I was personally pulling for Independent candidate John Anderson, I thought Jimmy Carter had been too beaten up by the so-called “energy crisis” and the hostages held in Iran (I was too young to appreciate the gravity of the high-interest rates at the time). Although I preferred Anderson and my family were all Carter people (that’s another article), I thought it was Reagan’s to lose. Nailed it.

So back to Kamala Harris. Although it’s no surprise that she is to the left of me, it’s been argued that she is also to the left of the Democratic Party. In a Fox interview, Republican Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana had kind words for Senator Harris, describing her as being both personable and intelligent. Still, when the discussion moved to ideology, he said that she was like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, but was smarter and didn’t have experience as a bartender. Zing.

While you probably won’t hear me rooting for that ticket, I sincerely hope she doesn’t take the beating that Sarah Palin had to suffer in 2008. She ran as John McCain’s VP pick in the race against Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the tactics used against her were unusually cruel. Her detractors challenged her political positions, as they should, but they also went after her personally. They openly questioned her intellect, and her family was not off-limits. The rumors circulated were horrendous.

I don’t recall that being the case for Geraldine Ferraro when she ran with Walter Mondale in 1984. In a dispute much like the one we see today, there were calls for her to release her tax returns, but that’s about as nasty as it became.

Yes, she was the first female to run on a major party ticket, so I would imagine there were enough old-school thinkers around who questioned her capabilities on that basis alone, but I don’t recall hearing much of that. Memories fade.

Even Hillary Clinton, running at the top of the ticket, didn’t receive the brutality Sarah Palin had to endure. As shrill and disliked as Secretary Clinton was, Vince Foster, White Water, and Benghazi were the worst accusations thrown at her. The really nasty comments were reserved for her husband.

One of the reasons that the Democratic VP pick is of heightened interest this year also centers around predictions. There are some people on the right who question Joe Biden’s cognitive state and are convinced that he will be a one-term president for health reasons. Others go so far as to bet that he won’t make it through the convention.

I’m not sure that I buy that. Yes, Mr. Biden stammers and misspeaks, but Mr. Trump doesn’t do well off-prompter for different reasons. Personally, I struggle with proper nouns sometimes, and I am substantially younger. I’m looking forward to the debates to see for myself if the accusations about him are legitimate, but those don’t happen until late September and October. The conventions starting next week will be carefully scripted and will not provide insight.

Polling suggests that this election is tightening. Predictions of the election outcome at this point would be premature because, quite honestly, with more than 80 days to go, the event that decides this election may not have happened yet.

Of course, most people are motivated to vote by either party affiliation or the person at the top of the ticket. The vice-presidential candidate tends to hold less sway on the outcome of the election. During his term as vice president, John Adams once wrote, “My country has, in its wisdom contrived for me the most insignificant office that man’s imagination has conceived.”