The presidential campaigns

I'm amazed every four years that a state like Iowa, which isn't representative of the country at large, gets so much attention from the media and candidates running for President. It's not that I dislike Iowa because I don't. My best friend at the college and his wife are both from Iowa and my Aunt and Uncle are too. But even though it's not indicative of how the rest of the country will vote, we're inundated with coverage from Iowa, candidates spend a great deal of time and money there and crow at the top of their lungs when they win.

I'm not going to give a lesson in Iowa politics because the caucus and what happens there is complicated and confusing, especially to non-Iowans trying to figure out what the heck is going on. Suffice it to say that Ted Cruz posted a surprising victory on the Republican side and Hillary Clinton eked out a win over Bernie Sanders by the smallest of margins.

The fact that Cruz beat Donald Trump was significant because the most recent and reliable polls showed Trump leading by several percentage points right up to the day the caucuses took place. So how did Cruz do it and what does his victory say about the validity of polls? It turns out that the Cruz campaign was involved in what Ben Carson described as dirty tricks leading up to and during the actual caucuses themselves. Most of the experts define Cruz as the favorite of the religious right of the party but not without significant support among evangelicals for Ben Carson. During the caucuses on Monday, the Cruz campaign disseminated information that said that Ben Carson was dropping out of the race and that those supporting him should back a more viable candidate. Ben Carson didn't drop out of the race and seriously criticized the Cruz campaign for releasing such information. Cruz apologized but after he had already won. And Donald Trump sought an injunction to invalidate the results and perhaps have even a repeat vote. So things got messy in Iowa.

One year ago, Hillary Clinton led Bernie Sanders by almost 60 percentage points yet won last Monday by less than one. What is she doing wrong or what is Sanders doing right to influence the vote that significantly? For one, her strong suit is not likeability. Even though many influential people who know her personally contend that off stage she is a charming, caring person, on stage she comes across as off-putting and that's not good when you're trying to get votes. Voting for Hillary while you're holding your nose is not a winning campaign slogan.

Her relationship with big banks, her exorbitant speaking fees and her continuing marriage to Bill Clinton, despite his many peccadilloes are three things many Democrats can't understand or tolerate. For a person to have several affairs or one long-lasting one while the spouse sticks their head in the sand and pretends it's not happening is interpreted as a black eye for both of them, not just the offender.

Bernie Sanders' rise has been almost exclusively due to the support of young people across the country. Sanders led Clinton by a huge margin in the 18-35 year old age group and Clinton led Sanders by a similar margin in the over 35 age group. The problem for Sanders is that older people vote much more frequently than younger ones, despite the younger ones enthusiasm for their candidate. Another problem is looking back on former Democratic Presidential candidates and their strong support by the youth movement. You won't find many if any winners and several embarrassing defeats by the likes of George McGovern, Eugene McCarthy, Gary Hart and others. So the youth vote bodes well for Hillary, not Bernie.

Of course, 48 more states must pick their candidates in the months to come, starting with New Hampshire next Wednesday, so this is only the first volley to be fired. Sanders will win New Hampshire handily, but maybe no states after that. He will stay in the race until he's assured he can't win the nomination and the Republicans will take themselves out one by one, as Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul did after the Iowa results.

Donald Trump is in it to win it but with un- favorability percentages reaching 50% in many states, I don't see that happening. It looks like a battle to me on the Republican side between Cruz and Rubio as I've said before to see who will face Hillary. Because Cruz has high negative ratings too, I think it will end up being a generational battle between an older white, wealthy and experienced woman and a young Hispanic man who has never had a silver spoon in his mouth.

And because of the Democrats ever-increasing advantage among Blacks, Hispanics, and women who taken together now make up over 50 percent of the voters in this country, I think Clinton will win, despite her shortcomings.