Fall TV coverage: CBS pins fall hopes on procedurals, NFL

The fall TV season is here, and that means it's time for a look into the future -- the near, near future, that is -- to identify the good, the bad and the rest on broadcast television. Over the next few weeks, I'll provide an overview of the fall offerings, and give my take on what will work, what won't, and where everyone will be standing at the midseason mark. This week, I'll stare at CBS until it gets kinda uncomfortable.

An eye on CBS: They might still be number one in total viewers, but last season, CBS slid to number three in the advertiser-preferred 18-49 demographic, even with the tremendous success of "The Big Bang Theory," which is the top-rated scripted series on network TV. "Survivor," entering its 29th cycle, is still a young viewer draw, but crime procedurals like 12-year-old "NCIS" (still CBS' top-rated drama series in both major measures), "CSI" (entering its 15th season) and "Criminal Minds" (beginning its 10th year), are not. So the network pursued and won the rights to share NFL Network's "Thursday Night Football" for the first 8 weeks of the league's season, likely hoping that will goose the numbers. The broadcast saw very good results the first night, and diminished returns the next. Even so, the ratings will likely be more than sufficient to keep CBS at the top of the night throughout the run.

Fall schedule outlook: Consistent year-to-year, if not a little better. Pro football, even with the current controversies swirling around it, is a ratings bonanza, particularly in today's TV landscape. "NCIS" is still a big mover for CBS, and the New Orleans spinoff -- the creatively titled "NCIS: New Orleans," starring Scott Bakula -- looks like it could take off like the Los Angeles one. (It will even take over the "NCIS: Los Angeles" Tuesday timeslot.) "The Big Bang Theory" will do well wherever it's parked.

Time shifts: "The Big Bang Theory" is back on Monday nights at 7 until football ends, then returns to Thursday to lead off that night, and will be replaced by "2 Broke Girls." Also on Monday, sitcom "Mom" moves up to 7:30, and "NCIS: Los Angeles," CBS' number two drama, moves into that night's 9 o'clock spot. "The Amazing Race" moves to Friday nights at 7, and "CSI" heads to Sunday nights at 9.

Potential breakout: On the basis of brand recognition alone, "NCIS: Los Angeles."

First cancellation (over/under): The Monday night hour-long entry "Scorpion" (which the network insists on calling a "fun-cedural," but I'm not required to, so there), might be in worse shape than "Stalker" (a procedural thriller starting Wednesday, Oct. 1) or new Thursday night comedy "The McCarthys," even though its couched between solid performers -- mainly because its couched between solid performers. But CBS' recent track record with new comedies hasn't been stellar, so I'm thinking that while "Scorpion" might find itself on the air at season's end, "The McCarthys," which doesn't even premiere until Oct. 30, won't. (12 episodes)

Midseason projection: 1st place in total viewers, 2nd in 18-49, thanks to football pumping up the averages.

Next up: FOX (or, "Hey, Young Viewers? We're Still Cool ... Right?")