Which numbers should we believe?

If proponent's numbers are to be believed, they are impressive.

According to supporters of the health care reform bill passed by the House Sunday night, Nebraska's 3rd District will see numerous benefits:

* Improved coverage for 346,000 residents with health insurance.

* Tax credits and other assistance for up to 161,000 families and 16,800 small businesses to help them afford coverage.

* Improved Medicare coverage for 105,000 beneficiaries including closing the donut hole.

* Extend coverage to 33,500 uninsured residents.

* Guarantee that 8,200 residents with pre-existing conditions can obtain coverage.

* Protect 800 families from bankruptcy due to unaffordable health care costs.

* Allow 42,000 young adults to obtain coverage on their parents' insurance plans.

* Provide millions of dollars in new funding for 10 community health centers.

* Reduce the cost of uncompensated care for hospitals and other health care providers by $98 million annually.

But at what cost?

According to the official party line, the bill, which will set up two new entitlement spending programs, health insurance subsidies and long-term health care benefits, would actually decrease the deficit. Over the next 10 years, health care reform legislation will cost about $950 billion, the story goes, but because it raises some revenues and lowers some costs, will actually reduce federal deficits by $138 billion.

Not according to Douglas Holtz-Eaken, who was director of the Congressional Budget Office from 2003 to 2005.

In a New York Times Op-ed piece, Holtz-Eaken points out that taxes and fees will begin immediately, but new subsidies won't be paid out until later, meaning that 10 years of revenue will pay for six years of spending.

Our household budgets would look great if we could all do that.

Some $114 billion in additional spending is required to operate programs for the first 10 years, money not even counted.

$70 billion in premiums will go toward long-term health care insurance over the first 10 years, but that isn't counted either, since the benefits would not materialize for that long or longer.

Other tricks include shifting corporate estimated taxes from 2015 to 2014, using $53 billion in anticipated higher Social Security taxes to offset health care spending -- money that is already spoken for.

And what does nationalization of federally financed student loans have to do with health care reform? Nothing, except supposedly generate $19 billion in deficit reduction.

The bill trims $463 billion from Medicare spending to use for financing insurance subsidies, but that program is already deeply in the red, and Congress is likely to continue overriding cuts in payments to providers.

Holtz-Eakin concludes a more realistic result will be that health care reform will generate additional deficits of $562 billion in the first 10 years, helping double the national debt to more than $20 trillion. By 2020, the federal deficit is projected to be $1.2 trillion each year, including $900 billion on interest alone.

Clearly, it appears, unless radical changes are enacted quickly and maintained over many years, the United States is headed for fiscal disaster.