Reservoirs show slim chance of recovery

Reports from university and government personnel have been coming in for quite some time now about the somber picture being painted of much of the country's drought situation and the potential for recovery.

Reports indicate that although recent storm activity gives room for optimism, it is probably too late to effectively improve prospects for producers relying on surface irrigation delivery this year.

As of mid-February, Lake McConaughy stood at 602,300 acre-feet, which is 35 percent of capacity and less than 50 percent of the long-term average for this date. Inflows are currently averaging 700 cubic feet per second (cfs), compared to the normal inflow average for this time of year 1100-1200 cfs. Last year at this time Lake McConaughy had 722,400 acre-feet and was at 41 percent of capacity.

Lake McConaughy will reach its lowest spring peak since the lake was filled in 1948. The all time record low was 380,000 acre-feet in 1956, which could easily occur with irrigation this year.

Conditions within the Republican River basin are worse than the Platte River system. Water started flowing under the Republican River bridge, south of Holbrook, early last week and there is none flowing at Arapahoe as I write this article. Harlan County Reservoir stands at 36 percent of capacity, compared to 51 percent at this time last year. Other reservoirs across Southwest Nebraska are as follows (first value -- this year; second value -- last year): Enders: (26 percent) (28 percent); Swanson: (24 percent) (20 percent); Hugh Butler: (43 percent) (36 percent); Harry Strunk: (69 percent) (56 percent).

As you can see water levels haven't changed much from a year ago and in some cases they are much lower.

Snow melt runoff projections for the Platte Watershed continue to decrease. The basin snowpack in Colorado and Wyoming was at 85 percent of normal in late January. Runoff projects for the spring peak are projected to be less than 50 percent of normal if the basin receives average snowfall through mid-April.

If snowfall within the basin continues to remain below normal, these estimates will be lowered. In order for the snowpack to achieve normal conditions by the statistical peak in mid-April, the basin will need to receive nearly 200 percent of average snowfall during the next 10 weeks. Even with a normal snowpack, runoff would only average 80-90 percent of normal. Once again, conditions are so dry in Wyoming that more of the melt water will be lost to infiltration than normally would be expected. Additional concerns have been raised by scientists monitoring the snowpack feeding the Platte and Missouri river basins.

Even if abundant rains do fall this spring and summer, the hydrological situation will persist into next year. In order for reservoirs in western Nebraska to return to normal, above normal mountain snows will be required through next winter. It is important to remember that reservoirs in Colorado and Wyoming are in as bad or worse shape than those in Nebraska. We need to see these lakes return to normal before significant recovery can take place.