“The System”- A 2021 Boys Class C-1 State Tournament Field Forecast

BRLD senior Micah Henschen (#5/dark blue) boxes out Auburn star Daniel Frary (#14/white) after a free throw during the 2021 Heartland Hoops Classic.

Ah yes, “The System”. The mysterious, but often deadly accurate forecaster of high school basketball game outcomes, boys as well as girls.

Not many know seem to have heard of this “System” and the few that do, will not take the time to do the homework necessary to find out if the mind-boggling statistical system may have committed a personal foul, forecasting a victory for the wrong team.

I have looked at this system in past years, only to dismiss it as another “games are not played on paper” conglomeration of hogwash. But this year has been different story. Some of the final scores are within a point or two. A handful of games each week have the final outcome exactly how it was forecasted.

Now, if I were a player or coach, I would completely ignore these “Systems”. Honestly, as a coach, player OR fan, I would not want to know the predicted outcome, and if my team were picked to lose, the forecasted loss would add fuel to the fire to perform all the better come game time.

All this aside, I am still going to complete this project just to see how well “The System” performed when the 2021 Boys State Tournament is in the books.

I based everything below Class A based on the Wild Card Standings as of Saturday, February 20th. I previously fed every Sub-District matchup into “The System” and it then spit out the predicted results.

So, we will begin with the District Final matchups;

Class C-1 Forecast

Here are the current Class C-1 Wild Card standings, followed the forecasted District Finals lineup; (Wild card teams; Milford, North Bend Central, Logan View/Scribner-Snyder and Mitchell).

1 Auburn (22-0), 46.5000 (Subdistrict C-1-1 winner)

2 Kearney Catholic (22-2), 45.3333 (Subdistrict C-1-11 winner)

3 Wahoo (18-6), 45.2500 (Subdistrict C-1-5 winner)

4 Omaha Concordia (20-4), 45.1250 (Subdistrict C-1-4 winner)

5 Milford (24-1), 45.1200 (Won tie breaker) (Subdistrict C-1-2 runner-up)

6 Adams Central (23-2), 45.1200 (Subdistrict C-1-9 winner)**

7 St. Paul (22-2), 45.0000 (Subdistrict C-1-10 winner)

8 Ogallala (19-4), 44.6086 (Subdistrict C-1-12 winner)

9 North Bend Central (18-5), 44.0896 (Subdistrict C-1-5 runner-up)

10 Wayne (21-5), 43.9231 (Subdistrict C-1-7 winner)

11 Pierce (20-4), 43.6250 (Subdistrict C-1-8 winner)

12 Logan View-Scribner-Snyder (16-6), 43.0455 (Subdistrict C-1-7 runner-up)

13 Mitchell (16-9), 42.9200 (Subdistrict C-1-12 runner-up)

14 Ashland-Greenwood (15-7), 42.7273 (Subdistrict C-1-3 winner)

15 Lincoln Christian (12-9), 42.0952 (Subdistrict C-1-2 winner)*

16 Boone Central (13-12), 41.3200 (Subdistrict C-1-6 winner)

*Strange call here with “The System” calling for a Lincoln Christian victory Milford. The very “predictable” (pardon the pun) things about these “prediction sources” is that they rarely, if ever forecast an underdog winning an athletic event of any kind. The raw statistical information should always fall in favor of the team with the better stats, better record etc.

Upsets are caused by HUMAN factors such as emotions, injuries to key players, coaches with better strategies, things a computer cannot know. No disrespect to Lincoln Christian, but a 23-0 Milford squad would seem to be a favorite in this matchup. The Eagles have also faced five Division 1 wild card teams and obviously defeated them all.

The ending thought here is that both qualify for the District final and Milford drops just a few notches. Now, if Lincoln Christian doesn’t win that sub-district, they wouldn’t get in and things would change noticeably in this class.

**Another mild outside the box pick came in Sub-District 9 where an 8-12 Wood River team beats an 11-5 Gibbon squad. There is no head to head meeting this year to fall back on, however, the two schools were to have clashed last Monday only to have the sub zero weather force a cancellation of the contest. The only I could think of the possibility of an “upset” existing would be the fact a crafty, successful Kevin Asher is now coaching at Wood River, but the computer, or whatever it is, certainly wouldn’t know that.

I give up on that one, so now onward and upward.

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District Final results:

#16 Boone Central (13-12), 41.3200 44 vs 64 Auburn (22-0), 46.5000 #1

#15 Lincoln Christian (12-9), 42.0952 40 vs 64 Kearney Catholic (22-2), 45.3333 #2

#14 Ashland-Greenwood (15-7), 42.7273 57 at 66 Wahoo (18-6), 45.2500 #3

#13 Mitchell (16-9), 42.9200 53 vs 70 Omaha Concordia (20-4), 45.1250 #4

#12 Logan View-Scribner-Snyder (16-6), 43.0455 48 at 51 Milford (23-1), 45.1200 #5

#11 Pierce (20-4), 43.6250 37 vs 47 Adams Central (23-2), 45.1200 #6

#10 Wayne (21-5), 43.9231 42 vs 43 St. Paul (22-2), 45.0000 #7

#9 North Bend Central (18-5), 44.0896 64 vs 60 Ogallala (19-4), 44.6086 #8

*There are a couple of picks here I am not in agreement with, but this the “The System’s” gig and so be it.

Class C-1 State Tournament

#8 North Bend Central (19-5), 44.3333 48 vs 56 Auburn 23-0, 46.5217 #1

#5 Omaha Concordia* (21-4), 45.2000 48 vs 55 Adams Central (24-2), 45.3076 #4

#6 St. Paul* (23-2), 45.2000 55 vs 63 Wahoo (19-6), 45.3200 #3

#7 Milford (24-1), 45.0000 45 vs 59 Kearney Catholic (23-2), 45.4000 #2

*(Omaha Concordia and St. Paul WC points were tied at 45.2000, but Concordia gets the tie breaker by playing more Division 1 teams IN THEIR CLASS (3) during the regular season)

Semifinals

#6 Adams Central (25-2) 44 vs 46 Auburn 24-0, 46.5217 #1 (Overtime)

#3 Wahoo (20-6) 59 vs 61 Kearney Catholic (24-2) #2 (Overtime)

Final

#2 Kearney Catholic (25-2) 46 vs 45 Auburn (25-0) #1

*Class C-1 State Champion - Kearney Catholic (26-2)

3rd Place Game

#6 Adams Central (25-3) 60 vs 59 Wahoo (20-7) #3

Third Place

Adams Central (26-3)

*There are choices here I also am not in agreement with, but we would have to revert back to the District Finals to square things up to my way of thinking. And, once again I will ask? “The System”.......Will it prove to be accurate in C-1?