Final General Election Projection

This will be my final projection before the election. On Tuesday we will be one week away, so my next posting on the election will be my predictions. I will go more in depth on that blog but essentially I will make three predictions: the most likely outcome, Trump's best scenario, and Clinton's best scenario.

This week saw a bit of a shake up for the pollsters. In particular, CVOTER, had their polls removed. This did not come as a huge shock to me as early on I noticed oddities with their polls (Clinton doing much better in reliably Trump states and vice versa). I actually looked into the pollster two weeks ago and discovered that the pollster was an India organization that was known to take bribes in that country to make the polls look a certain way. Whether that is the reason they have been removed I do not know.

Kansas and Georgia both slipped back to lean states. For now, though I will not place either into the toss-up category and with the next posting coming on election day they will not become toss-ups.

Washington also moved to safe for Clinton.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/do8lR

TOSS-UP STATES

Pennsylvania

Twelve new polls this week. Clinton's lead rose to 4.92 in 87 polls 44.49-39.57. Trump was able to get on favorable poll this week but that was just a tie. I do not really consider Pennsylvania to be all that close anymore but by rule it is still a toss-up.

Missouri

Three new polls this week. Trump's lead increased to 4.89 in 45 polls 42.73-37.84. This was a good week for Trump here as in all three polls he had leads.

Florida

NINETEEN new polls this week. Clinton's lead grew to 2 in 110 polls 44.15-42.13. There are states that have not had 19 polls this entire election season let alone in a week. Though Trump did have some favorable polls this week the majority of Clinton's lead were fairly large (for Florida) hence why her lead grew.

Nevada

Ten new polls this week. Clinton's lead has grown to 0.84 in 63 polls 41.46-40.62.At this time Nevada looks very solid for Clinton as her grew lead. Trump did have some favorable polls but not enough to decrease the lead.

North Carolina

Fifteen polls this week. Clinton's lead grew to 0.67 in 92 polls 42.82-42.15. North Carolina is also beginning to look solid for Clinton as Trump has not lead in a poll in North Carolina in almost a week.

Iowa

Two new polls this week. Clinton's lead grew to 0.36 in 52 polls 39.63-39.27. Clinton still has the lead though not actually leading in a poll in also a week. A tie has more than likely kept her in the lead average.

Ohio

Ten new polls this week. Clinton lead down to 0.28 in 86 polls 41.13-40.85. I could absolutely see Trump actually pulling out a win in Ohio, and while for years the adage has been lose Ohio, lose the election, that may not be the case this week. Trump lead in the majority of the polls this week helping him cut into Clinton's lead.

Arizona

Four new polls this week. Trump's lead shrunk to 0.24 in 54 polls 40.57-40.33. There has been a complete reset in Arizona thanks in large part to CVOTER being taken off the list of pollsters. This was actually a good week for Trump as at one point Clinton enjoyed a slight lead.

NORTHEAST

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton lead up to 52.63-27.47 (lead was 23.71 up to 25.16)
New York - Clinton lead up to 50.38-31.06 (lead was 18.8 up to 19.32)
Massachusetts - Clinton lead up to 52.03-27.17 (lead was 22.91 up to 24.86)
Vermont - Clinton lead up to 49.21-19.71 (lead was 29.15 up to 29.5)
DC - Clinton lead up to 60.73-16.33 (lead was 41.74 up to 44.4)
Maine D-1 - Clinton unchanged at 47.5-31.38 (lead 16.12)
Rhode Island - Clinton lead down to 45.17-28.72 (lead was 17.39 down to 16.45)

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton lead up to 42.37-30.19 (lead was 11.68 up to 12.18)
New Jersey - Clinton lead up to 45.77-33.85 (lead was 11.46 up to 11.92)
Connecticut - Clinton lead down to 45.69-33.24 (lead was 12.57 down to 12.45)
New Hampshire - Clinton lead up to 44.33-36.79 (lead was 7.4 up to 7.54)
LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump lead unchanged at 41-37.64 (lead at 3.36)

SOUTHEAST

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump lead down to 50.26-32.74 (lead was 17.87 down to 17.52)
Alabama - Trump lead down to 54.36-30.14 (lead was 24.75 down to 24.12)
West Virginia - Trump lead up to 50.82-31.67 (lead was 18.45 up to 19.15)
Mississippi - Trump lead down to 51.04-32.46 (lead was 19 down to 18.58)
Tennessee - Trump lead down to 46.13-31.69 (lead was 15.46 down to 14.44)

LIKELY

Arkansas - Trump lead up to 47.07-34.5 (lead was 12.32 up to 12.57)
Kentucky - Trump lead up to 44.94-33.68 (lead was 11.2 up to 11.26)
Virginia - Clinton lead up to 44.28-36.22 (lead was 7.45 up to 8.06)
South Carolina - Trump lead down to 45.22-37.86 (lead was 8.35 down to 7.36)

LEAN

Georgia - Trump lead down to 44.46-39.5 (lead was 5.34 down to 4.96)

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton lead up to 47.05-31.42 (lead was 15.15 up to 15.63)

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump lead down to 43.87-35.47 (lead was 8.44 down to 8.4)
Michigan - Clinton lead down to 42.17-36.14 (lead was 6.13 down to 6.03)
Wisconsin - Clinton lead down to 43.75-36.15 (lead was 7.82 down to 7.6)
Minnesota - Clinton lead up to 41.44-32.66 (lead was 8 up to 8.78)

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump lead down to 48.58-30.42 (lead was 19.29 down to 18.16)
North Dakota - Trump lead down to 46.53-24.95 (lead was 21.72 down to 21.58)
Nebraska D-1- Trump unchanged at 53-29 (up 24)
Nebraska D-3- Trump unchanged at 65-20 (up 45)

LIKELY

Texas - Trump lead down to 44.32-34.8 (lead was 10.36 down to 9.52)
South Dakota - Trump lead up to 42.26-31.3 (lead was 9.75 up to 10.96)
Nebraska D-2- Trump unchanged at 49-40 (up 9)
LEAN

Kansas - Trump lead down to 41.44-37.35 (lead was 5 down to 4.09)

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Wyoming - Trump lead up to 50.39-21.39 (lead was 28.59 up to 29)
Idaho - Trump lead down to 46.09-27.03 (lead was 20.13 down to 19.06)

LIKELY

Montana - Trump lead UP to 43.5-33.36 (lead was 10.12 up to 10.14)
New Mexico - Clinton lead up to 41.39-32.67 (lead was 7.83 up to 8.72)
Utah - Trump lead down to 34.67-28 (lead was 9.81 down to 6.67)
Colorado - Clinton lead up to 41.92-36.02 (lead was 5.58 up to 5.9)

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton lead up to 53-29.24 (lead was 23.13 up to 23.76)
Hawaii - Clinton lead down to 47.94-25.94 (lead was 25.37 down to 22)
Washington - Clinton lead up to 45.83-31.6 (lead was 13.71 up to 14.23)

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton lead up to 45.18-32.92 (lead was 11.11 up to 12.76)
Alaska - Trump lead down to 38.08-30.92 (lead was 7.34 down to 7.16)

JOHNSON ONLY POLLS PROJECTION

At this point it is pretty safe to assume that Johnson's support has collapsed. In states where McMullin is on the ballot some of those voters are going to him, but in truth Republican voters are coming home to Trump

http://www.270towin.com/maps/wy3jr