Week 15 General Election Projection

This update is coming a little later in the day today than I had originally wanted. Late yesterday there was a data dump as a new pollster was added to the mix. Google Consumer Surveys. I will be honest I know next to nothing about the group but I will keep an eye on them. The group seems to be decent as the polls tend to agree mostly with other polls.

With this group added every state AND D.C. are now polled.

My faith in one pollster, in particular, is very low. Ipsos, which was added in the last few weeks, is one of the most out of step poll there is. Whatever the general feel of the race is, Ipsos is guaranteed to be way off the mark. The groups polls are almost consistently and outlier from the other polls.

Having said that here is this week's projection.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/gGmRG

Utah, Kansas, South Carolina, and Indiana move from Lean Trump to Likely Trump.

Montana and South Dakota move from Safe Trump to Likely Trump.

Rhode Island and Delaware move from Safe Clinton to Likely Clinton.

Toss-Up States

South Carolina

The last week has been kind to Trump in South Carolina. He now leads by 6 with 15 polls 44-38. This week may have put the state out of reach for Clinton. If the trend has not reversed next week South Carolina will be removed from the Toss-Up category.

Georgia

Yet another state that should be safely in Trump's wheelhouse begins to look more and more likely to go that way as Trump now leads in 24 polls by 4; 43.58-39.58. Georgia looks to be moving solidly back in Trump's corner. This is another state that could be removed from the Toss-Up field if Clinton doesn't improve her numbers

Missouri

There have been 20 polls performed in the state. Trump leads by 3.7; 42.4-38.7. Though his lead did shrink somewhat the overall trend is still towards Trump.

Florida

Florida has now been polled 50 times. Clinton leads by 2.72; 43.94-41.22.Florida is still trending for Clinton. Trump did see two polls in his favor but one was for 3 the other by two.

Iowa

Clinton finally had a good week of polls in the state which has helped her lead grow to 1.63 in 27 polls 40.22-38.59 It looks as though Clinton may have stopped the bleeding here for the moment. Whether that will continue remains to be seen.

Ohio

Another state that has tightened up over the last week. Clinton now leads in 37 polls by 1.35 over Trump 41.08-39.73. The last six polls saw a major slide towards Trump where he lead in five. Clinton did lead in the last poll to come out. It will be interesting to see if the state is beginning to trend back towards Clinton or if that poll is an outlier.

Arizona

Here we have a state beginning to trend back towards Clinton. She was able to cut in Trump's lead and narrow it to 1.13 trailing 40.88-39.75. Several new polls in the state either showed narrow Clinton leads, ties, or very small Trump leads which lead to the narrow.

North Carolina

Clinton's lead in the last week has evaporated. In the 39 polls taken her lead has plummeted to 0.75 with a 42.49-41.74 lead. What has helped Trump erase Clinton's lead is that several polls came out in favor of him. However the trend isn't fully towards him yet as the last poll in the state once again gave Clinton a lead.

Nevada

The state is a tie at this point with 18 polls 40-40, because Clinton lead the last two polls I give the lean to her. There was one poll in the last week that had Trump up 41-30 and that is the only reason for a tie at this time. The state looks to be in Clinton's control at the moment.

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton leads 53.31-27
New York - Clinton leads 51.15-31.81
Massachusetts - Clinton leads 50.62-28.15
Vermont - Clinton leads 45.75-17.75
Maine D-1 - Clinton leads 50-31.5

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton leads 39.5-28.63
New Jersey - Clinton leads 45.28-34.06
Connecticut - Clinton leads 45.17-33.58
New Hampshire - Clinton leads 43.82-37.08
Pennsylvania - Clinton leads 44.5-39
Rhode Island - Clinton leads 40.5-27.17

LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump leads by 39.-36

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump leads 50.91-32
Alabama - Trumps leads 55.27-30.09
West Virginia - Trump leads 50.83-30.83
Mississippi - Trump leads 52.18-32.55
Tennessee - Trump leads 45.91-30.27

LIKELY

Arkansas - Trump leads 44.8-35.3
Kentucky - Trump leads 42.92-34.58
Virginia - Clinton leads 43.82-35.89

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton leads 46.24-31.06
Indiana - Trump leads 45.25-34.69

LIKELY

Michigan - Clinton leads 41.85-35.62
Wisconsin - Clinton leads 43.82-35.64
Minnesota - Clinton leads 41.18-31.18

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump leads 47.73-29.36
North Dakota - Trump leads 46.2-22.8

LIKELY

Texas - Trump leads 42.71-33.93
Nebraska - Trump leads 41.89-32.44
South Dakota - Trump leads 35.6-30

LEAN

Kansas - Trump leads 41.7-36.8

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Wyoming - Trump leads 45.8-22.8
Idaho - Trump leads 45-27.08

LIKELY

Montana - Trump leads 41-32.38
Colorado - Clinton leads 49-35
New Mexico - Clinton leads 41.67-35
Utah - Trump leads 37-31

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton leads 52.48-29.91
Hawaii - Clinton leads 47-67-24.5

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton leads 43-33
Washington - Clinton leads 44.25-30.83
Alaska - Trump leads 38-30.63

Tomorrow I will release the map along with analysis of polls that show Clinton, Trump, and Johnson.

Map including just Johnson Polls

As promised yesterday the map below shows only polls where Johnson is included as third party candidate. I learned this past week that pollsters in general do not like polling for third party candidates because those candidates typically poll higher than the election outcome. It is said that by asking people Clinton, Trump, or Johnson some people that are not going to vote for Johnson will say Johnson anyways. It turns out to be a false positive.

For the record Ipsos does not poll Johnson in any of their polls.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

http://www.270towin.com/maps/gGLPE

A few notes of interest: Nevada is a Lean Trump in this map where the race is tied with all polls. Georgia and South Carolina are both Likely Trump states. However, both are barely Likely Trump states as both show Trump leads of just 5.

ELECTION HELD TODAY 9/13

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

http://www.270towin.com/maps/y1Ev3