Weeks 4&5 2016 General Election Projection

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I have decided to change up the way I am doing the projections so you will notice some changes. In addition to using pollster.com for my projections I have now also added in rearclearpolitics.com. Once 538.com shifts their focus to the general election I will also use theirs in a combination to show the most exact (as possible) projection possible.

Though states may switch from one candidate to the other. The states generally considered to be toss-ups this year are (in no particular order):

Arizona

Nevada

New Mexico

Colorado

Missouri

Iowa

Ohio

Florida

Georgia

North Carolina

Virginia

Pennsylvania

Vermont

Each week from here on out I will state where each state is leaning as well as any new polls and average polls.

To make it more streamlined any candidate that is up by less than 5% will see that state as a lean. Candidates that are up by 5-14% will see that state as likely. Any candidate that is up by 15% or more will see that state as safe.

ARIZONA:

In the last poll out of Arizona in May, Donald Trump was leading 40-38%. Because of the number of polls that have been performed in Arizona do not meet Pollster's threshold for a trend, they have none. However, Real Clear Politics has the average of Clinton up on Trump 40.3-39.3% Due to that Clinton will get the lean towards her.

NEVADA:

There have been no polls out of the state, but as the state has voted for the Democratic Party in the last two elections, Clinton will get the lean.

NEW MEXICO:

There have been no polls in this state, but as the state has voted for the Democratic Party in the last two elections, Clinton will get the lean.

COLORADO:

There have been no polls in this state, but as the state has voted for the Democratic Party in the last two elections, Clinton will get the lean.

IOWA:

Pollster currently has Clinton leading Trump in the last poll released 44-41% and the average 44.9%-41.1% and Real Clear Politics 45-41%. Clinton gets the lean. Just to note that the last poll out of Iowa was in January.

MISSOURI:

Pollster showed Clinton leading in the last poll performed 42-40% in March. There have not been enough polls for an average. RCP also does not have an average and also does not include the last poll from the state. Due to the last poll showing Clinton with a lead the state will lean towards her.

OHIO:

Ohio (along with Florida) is a toss-up state in every race and yet there hasn't been a poll out of the state in a month. Pollster has Clinton leading on average 42.5-39.1% and in the last poll 45-39%. In RCP they have Clinton leading their average 42.7-41.3%. Clinton gets the lean.

GEORGIA:

Pollster currently has Trump leading with an average of 44.7-40.2% and in the last poll (conducted by a Democratic aligned pollster) 45-38%. RCP has Trump's average lead at 45-40.8%. Georgia is on the verge of becoming a likely state for Trump but for the time being will remain a lean.

FLORIDA:

Pollster currently has Clinton leading with an average of 44-40.9% but in the last poll performed by PPP (which is considered to be a Democratic leaning pollster) has Trump up 41-40%. However, the last PPP had Trump up 46-44% so he has actually lost a percent. RCP has Clinton leading with an average of 44.2-42.6%. Clinton gets the lean.

NORTH CAROLINA:

Pollster has Trump leading with an average of 42-40.2% and in the last two polls one by Republican leaning pollster Trump leading 39-36% and a Democratic leaning pollster Trump leading 43-41%. RCP has Trump leading with an average of 43.8-42.8%. Trump gets the lean.

VIRGINIA:

Pollster has Clinton leading with an average of 42.2-38.5% and in the last poll 42-39% by a Democratic leaning pollster. RCP has Clinton leading the average of 43.8-39.8. Virginia had been a likely Clinton state but has seen her lead shrink and now is at a lean.

PENNSYLVANIA:

Pollster currently has Clinton leading with an average of 43.8-39.7% and in the last poll by a Democratic leaning pollster 41-40%. RCP has Clinton leading with an average 46.3-42.3%. Even though the last poll had Clinton leading by just one she has led in every poll and is just outside of having the state in the likely category.

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Pollster currently has Clinton leading with an average of 42.5-39% and in the last poll they were tied. RCP has Clinton leading with an average of 43-36.5%. Clinton's lead in RCP is above the line for New Hampshire to be a likely state for Clinton. However, they do leave some pollsters out that are in Pollster's. Therefore I will leave the state as a lean for Clinton.

Of the 162 electoral votes up for grabs in the toss up states not a single one reaches the threshold of being a likely state for either candidate. However, Clinton does currently hold 131 of those delegates.