Week 3 2016 General Election Projection

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A new week and a new change. After losing North Carolina last week in the polling to Trump, Clinton gains Missouri just slightly over Trump. The available polls are below:

Missouri:

Trump goes from up 5 to down 2. There have only been three polls released in the state but for now it will be a lean Hillary state.

Arizona:

There has not been a new poll here since May 16th and in that poll Trump had a two point advantage on Clinton.

California:

No surprise here that Clinton has a huge lead over Trump. 52-33% on average and 55-31% in the last poll released on June 1st.

Florida:

Clinton has lead in almost every poll released in the state, albeit small leads. The main outlier being a Republican pollster that had her up by 13. The average has her up 45-42% and the last poll had her up by the same margin released June 3.

Georgia:

This could become a safe state for Trump if the trend continues in his favor. He is now leading the average 45-40% and the last poll 45-38% released on May 31st.

Iowa:

The only reason that Iowa is not a safe Clinton state is because there has not been polling in the state since January. At the time Clinton was leading the average 47-40% and the last poll 48-40% released on January 8th.

Maryland:

Only three polls have been released in this state but they all show Clinton with a safe lead of around 30%.

Michigan:

The last poll out of this state (released on May 27th)had Clinton only up 43-39% but with the average having her lead 46-39% more polls will need to be released to determine if the state is trending towards Trump or if it is an outlier.

Minnesota:

The last polls released here were in January. Two had Clinton up, one had Trump up. It remains a lean towards Clinton until new polling comes out.

New Hampshire:

Despite the last poll showing a tie between Clinton and Trump (44% a piece released on May 29th) and the trend being more towards Trump, the state remains a lean Clinton as she still leads in the average 43-39% and Trump has yet to have a poll showing him in the lead.

New York:

Even though Trump has said he will deliver New York to the Republicans in November the polling just is not showing that. The closest he has been to Clinton was an April Fox News poll that showed him down by 16%. Clinton leads in average 53-34% and in the last poll 52-31% released on May 27th.

North Carolina:

What had been a safe Hillary lead through April saw an absolute collapse of her lead in May. Trump currently leads the state in average 42-40% and in the last poll 39-36% releases on May 24th.

Ohio:

The state has been trending towards Clinton every since a Quinnipiac poll had trump in the lead. She currently leads in average 42-39% and in the last poll 45-39% released on May 23rd.

Pennsylvania:

The polls have been all over the place in the last few months from a Trump lead in October to a huge lead for Clinton in late April. Currently the average has her in the lead 45-40% with the last poll showing her lead at 43-42% released on May 9th.

Virginia:

While recent polls had shown a tightening of the race here Hillary seems to have regained the momentum for the time being. She currently leads 42-39% with the last poll showing her lead at 45-41% released on May 25th. Though a poll released the week before had shown a tie between Clinton and Trump, Trump has never led in a poll here.

Wisconsin:

Clinton leads safely here as well with an average of 48-36% with the last poll showing her lead at 43-31% released on May 13th.

The final Super Tuesday is this week on the 7th. What seemed an easy victory for Clinton a few weeks ago has turned into a toss-up I California.